VRIJDAG REGELDAG
Er is weer meer dan genoeg te melden in bankenland. Consequenties op
middellange termijn: kleinere financiële sector, minder leverage, wellicht
minder economische groeisnelheid, maar hopelijk ook minder ernstige
financiële crises. Al is de snelheid van de regulering er wel een beetje
vanaf: ‘Never waist a good crisis’ luidt het gezegde, maar er is nog weinig
fundamenteels veranderd.

Toch zitten er wat veranderingen aan te komen, bijvoorbeeld waar de verliezen
terecht komen bij een volgende bankencrisis:

FSB
to Seek Agreement on Bondholder Losses at Failing Banks — Global
regulators will consider forcing senior bondholders of failing banks to take
losses to shield taxpayers from future bailouts, amid concerns the measures
may raise lenders’ funding costs. The Financial Stability Board will meet in
Paris on July 18 to weigh draft international measures to guard against a
new wave of state rescues. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s
plans to toughen capital rules for the world’s most systemically important
lenders are likely to be endorsed without major changes, said two people
familiar with the talks, who declined to be identified because the
negotiations aren’t public.

Dodd-Frank Law ‘Dead Clear’ About Ban On Bailouts -Treasury — Credit ratings
agency Standard & Poor’s is coming
under fire in Washington for suggesting it is still possible for the
government to rescue the financial system in a time of crisis. Speaking to
reporters Thursday as the one-year anniversary of the Dodd-Frank financial
overhaul approaches next week, a senior Treasury official said Thursday it
is "dead clear" the financial overhaul law doesn’t permit spending of
taxpayer money to prop up failing financial firms.

Hoe ‘dead clear’ die regels ook mogen zijn, toch zal er ook bij een volgende
crisis systeembanken gered moeten worden – niet om aandeel-&
obligatiehouders te helpen, maar om de economie te redden. Nu stoer zeggen
dat dat nooit moet gebeuren is gevaarlijk en dom.

Maar, om ‘moral hazard’ te voorkomen moeten er wel dingen geregeld worden –
zoals ‘living will’ rules van de systeembanken (duurt nog wel even: “FDIC delays
action on big bank ‘living wills ’”
Living Will Rule Leaves
Banks Reluctant to Plan Own Funerals By Joe Adler, American Banker.
Regulators Lack
Power to Shut Down Failing Banks , Basel Says of de Nederlandse variant
erop: het splitsen van banken in consumenten en handelsbanken, waar ook niet
iedereen blij mee is: “Banken splitsen is
geen goed idee ”.
“Nout Wellink tegen
geforceerde splitsing banken ”

Naast de bankenstructuren, worden ook de handelsregels & -kosten aangepakt. Af
en toe komt er een Tobin-tax idee langsvliegen, of er zijn andere
voorstellen om de derivatenhandel te beteugelen.

En daar zijn de gebruikers van sommige van die producten niet blij mee: “European
groups fear OTC derivatives plan - Europe’s largest industrial
companies have expressed alarm at a proposal by the European Commission that
they say would impose punitive capital charges on banks providing
over-the-counter derivatives to companies, stifling legitimate hedging
activities. The development is the latest twist in a long-running lobbying
effort by European and US companies to ensure they are not caught up in
sweeping post-crisis reform of OTC derivatives and the banking sector. They
have argued that they should be exempt from having to follow new rules that
would force users of OTC derivatives to process them through clearing houses
- a key measure in the clean-up of the financial system. The companies had
argued that, as big users of OTC derivatives such as interest rate swaps and
FX forward contracts, being forced to use clearing would drain cash and
prevent legitimate hedging of business risk..”

En CDSsen worden vandaag ook niet met rust gelaten: BaFin to Check Rules for
Insuring Bonds, FT Deutschland Says -- German financial regulator BaFin will
decide through a case-by-case basis on exemptions for insurers’ handling of
sovereign debt issued by countries with deteriorating credit ratings,
Financial Times Deutschland reported, citing an interview with Gabriele
Hahn, the BaFin executive responsible for oversight of insurers. Exemptions
in place for Greek debt will run until 2013, Hahn was cited as saying. Aldus
Bloomberg.

Succes met de expiraties vandaag & Prettig weekend!

Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en
verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research.

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